摘要
灰色预测模型是中长期负荷预测的一种有效的方法,对E型规律发展的负荷有很好的拟合性,但对有转折点的S型增长趋势或增长处于饱和阶段的负荷进行预测误差较大。本文通过对历史数据的最优分段,提出了等维递补灰色校正模型,可以很好地解决这个问题。实例表明,此模型在中长期负荷预测中是适用的,尤其对于按S型曲线增长的情况,具有很高的预测精度。
Grey prediction model is an effective forecast method of long-term load, and it is a very good fit to the load of e-type growth, but for the load of s-type growth or growth in the saturation stage, the error is larger. Based on the optimum segment of historical data, the equivalent dimensions additional grey correct model is proposed, so it is a good solution to this problem. The example shows that this model is applicable in the long-term load forecast, especially for the s-curve growth, and has a high forecast accuracy.
出处
《运筹与管理》
CSCD
2007年第1期97-99,共3页
Operations Research and Management Science
关键词
负荷预测
等维递补
最优分段
灰色校正模型
load foreeasting
equivalent dimensions addition
optimum segment
grey correct model
