摘要
本文对太阳活动预报的目的、方法以及预报的现状和发展趋势作了简评,特别对太阳活动的长期、中期和短期预报作了论述。文章最后总结了各类太阳活动预报面临的改进问题,并简单讨论了太阳活动预报和空间环境服务组织的工作问题。
A brief review of solar activity predictions is presented in this paper. In addition to a short description of solar prediction methods, improvement problems of these kinds of solar forecastings are discussed. Pointed out are that (1) for long-term solar predictions the improvement should be done by developing new methods under help of clear physical ideas rather than doing more so called pure statistics, (2) for medium-term predictions the improvement should be done firstly by digitizing the known rules and knowledge about solar active regions and (3) obviously, short-term solar predictions are now faced to transform predictional skill of individual forecasters into an objective forecasting method. It is believed that, on the other hand, space and multi-wavelength observations and physical research of solar cycles, active regions and flares are strongly needed for solar predictions with a high quality. In the second part of the paper the evaluation of a prediction, the present situation of solar predictions over the world and what should be done in a forecasting centre are discussed briefly.
出处
《天文学进展》
CSCD
北大核心
1990年第2期89-98,共10页
Progress In Astronomy
基金
国家自然科学基金
科学院太阳峰年基金
