摘要
在太阳活动预报中,预报因子的选取和处理对预报效果影响甚大。本文在云台原有的平均综合指数基础上,运用模糊识别方法,给出了一种模糊识别综合指数,它能更好地表征太阳日面活动区的活动特征。这种方法简单、方便,较充分地利用了预报因子中所含有的有用信息,从而使识别预报率有所提高。
The selection and management of the forecasting factors greatly affect the results in the solar activity forecast.Fuzzy recognizing composite indices are p-rovided on the basis of the present average composite indices of the Yunnan Observatory by means of the fuzzy recognizing method in this-paper. They are better than the average composite indices in characterizing the activity of a sunspot active region. This method is simple and convenient. It fully utilizes available information contained in the forecasting factors. An examination from January to June 1981 was made day by day. The results show that the total recognizing forecasting rate of the fuzzy recognizing forecasting rate of the fuzzy recognizing composite indices is increased by 20% over the average composite indices.
