摘要
[Objective] The aim of this study was to analyze and forecast the transmission trend of highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome（HP-PRRS）by mathematical model.[Method]The pigs were divided into the susceptible population S,the incidence population I and the removed population R.Dynamics models of transmission rate β（t）,recovery rate γ（t）and incidence rate δ（t）were analyzed,and the mathematical models of diseased pigs each day I（t）and healthy pigs each day H（t）of HP-PRRS were established in transmission process.[Result]Transmission rate β（t）,recover rate γ（t）and incidence rate δ（t）were conformed to the results of the actual figures,and the mathematical models of diseased pigs each day I（t）and healthy pigs each day H（t）of HP-PRRS were accorded with the objective law of transmission.[Conclusion]This mathematical model could be better used to analyze the transmission trend of HP-PRRS.
[目的]分析和预测高致病性猪繁殖与呼吸综合征的流行趋势。[方法]将猪分为3类:易感猪S、发病猪I和退出猪R,拟合传染速率β(t)、恢复率γ(t)和病死率δ(t)的动态模型,建立该病流行的每天病猪数I(t)模型和健康猪数H(t)模型。[结果]通过比较,模型的理论传染速率β(t)、恢复率γ(t)和病死率δ(t)与实际计算结果基本一致,每天病猪数I(t)模型和健康猪数H(t)模型较符合实际。[结论]该数学模型可较好地预测高致病性猪繁殖与呼吸综合征的流行趋势。
