全球经济危机对我国进出口贸易的影响--基于多参数平滑法的定量分析被引量：9

Influence of Global Economic Crisis on China's Import and Export Trade:Based on Quantitative Analysis by Multi-parameter Smoothing Methods

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摘要选取2000-2010年我国进出口的月度数据,运用多参数平滑方法,分析了全球经济危机对我国进出口贸易的影响。定量分析显示全球经济危机使我国2009年和2010年对外出口规模减少额超过10000亿美元,进口规模减少额超过6000亿美元,影响十分巨大,危机开始时对一般贸易的影响超过对进出口的整体影响。随着我国政府实施扩张性的财政政策和货币政策的效果逐渐显现,世界经济逐步回暖,全球经济危机对我国进出口的影响逐渐减少。进一步的研究显示:危机使得我国对欧盟进出口的影响超过了对美国进出口的影响;对欧美地区出口的影响超过进口的影响;对我国不同地区进出口的影响是从东到西影响强度逐步减弱,对外开放程度越高的地区受到的影响越显著,能够充分发挥比较优势的产品或行业受到全球经济危机负面影响的程度较小。 Based on China＇s 2000-2010 monthly data,this paper studies the influence of the global economic crisis（GEC） on China＇s import and export trade by multi-parameter smoothing methods.Quantitative analysis shows that the GEC has reduced the amount of China＇s exports by over one trillion US dollars and of China＇s imports by over 600 billion US dollars between 2009 and 2010.Therefore,the influence of GEC on China＇s import and export trade is enormous.At the beginning of the GEC,its influence on general trade surpassed its influence on overall imports and exports trade.With gradually emerging of effectiveness of China＇s expansionary fiscal policy and monetary policy,and the recovery of the world economy,the GEC＇s influence on China＇s import and export trade has decreased.Further studies show GEC＇s influence on China＇s imports from and exports to the EU are more serious than from/to the US.At the same time,the GEC has led to different influence on different regions and different sectors in China.

作者汤学兵韩晓丹

机构地区华中科技大学经济学院

出处《国际贸易问题》 CSSCI 北大核心 2011年第4期3-14,共12页 Journal of International Trade

基金国家社会科学基金重大项目“区域协调发展的目标选择、实现路径与动态评价研究”(07&ZD011) 湖北哲学社会科学2008年“十一五”规划课题“贸易和直接投资对金融危机下国际冲突的作用及我国对策”(2009033)

关键词全球经济危机进出口多参数平滑法影响机理 Global Economic Crisis（GEC） Import and export Multi-parameter smoothing methods Influencing mechanism

分类号 F113.7 [经济管理—国际贸易]

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参考文献7

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