摘要
The spatial (economic loss) and temporal characteristics of urban fires were analyzed employing relevant statistical methods. A fractal structure in terms of the power-law relation between fire frequency and economic loss was found on a spatial scale, and an exponential relation between frequency and time interval was found on a temporal scale. Thus, urban fire does not meet the rigorous criteria of self-organized criticality. In addition, based on the spatial power-law distribution characteristics, a correlation model of the frequency and scale of loss due to urban fire was established using the extremum statistical method. This model was then applied to the case analysis of Hefei and the probability of major fire incidents in the future was predicted.
The spatial （economic loss） and temporal characteristics of urban fires were analyzed employing relevant statistical methods. A fractal structure in terms of the power-law relation between fire frequency and economic loss was found on a spatial scale, and an exponential relation between frequency and time interval was found on a temporal scale. Thus, urban fire does not meet the rig- orous criteria of self-organized criticality. In addition, based on the spatial power-law distribution characteristics, a correlation model of the frequency and scale of toss due to urban fire was established using the extremum statistical method. This model was then applied to the case analysis of Hefei and the probability of major fire incidents in the future was predicted.
基金
supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91024025)
