摘要
建立了城市重大危机事件的"事件链",并分析了"事件链"中各状态的相互关系。基于SEIS传染病模型的思想,提出了一类城市重大危机事件的动力学模型。分别在不考虑外部因素对事件链的影响和考虑外部因素对事件链的影响的情况下,对事件从正常状态到危机状态沿时间的发展趋势和规律进行了分析,并对解进行Lyapunov稳定性分析以及计算机模拟仿真。研究表明:系统自身的修复能力和外部因素对系统的影响是控制危机事件的重要因素。
The event chain of the urban major crisis was established,and the correlation of the various status was analyzed.Based on SEIS epidemic model,a dynamics model for urban crisis was proposed.By analyzing on 2 Situations,namely with and without the exterior factors affecting on the chain of events,the developing trends and disciplines of the events from normal to crisis were described.Finally,the solutions were analyzed using the Lyapunov stability theory and the simulations.The research showed that the self-repairing capability and the external affecting are the essential factors for the controlling of the urban crisis.
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第1期10-13,共4页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金重点资助项目
城市重大危机事件动态演化及应急行为规律研究(编号:70833006)
