摘要
许多专家学者担心马六甲海峡的安全特别是油气运输的安全问题,提出了各种避开马六甲海峡的解决方案。但本文认为,海洋运输在国际石油运输中占有主导地位,世界油气海洋运输多数都要通过海峡,因此,油气运输不可能避开海峡,而是要利用海峡。文章在对原油等货物通过马六甲海峡时面临的常规外部风险、常规内部风险以及封锁风险进行详细分析的基础上,提出了应对之策,认为我国解决"马六甲海峡困局"的关键在于:与印尼、马来西亚、新加坡三国建立良好的合作关系;与日本、韩国等东亚国家努力构建能源共同体;与美国建立良性的竞合关系;必要时利用巽他海峡和龙目海峡的替代通道。文章还指出,中缅管线有利于云南等西南地区的石油供应安全,但不是解决中国石油安全的根本途径。
Many experts worry that security in the Strait of Malacca is primarily about the safety of oil and gas shipments,and propose a variety of prescriptions for avoiding use of the Strait.But international oil ocean shipping has the dominant status in oil transportation.Most world oil and gas shipment goes through straits.Indeed,oil and gas shipping can't avoid straits,but must use them.On the basis of a detailed analysis of the conventional external dangers faced by shipment of crude oil and other goods through the Strait of Malacca,and conventional inward dangers together with the danger of blockade,proposed countermeasures key for China to avoid any 'Strait of Malacca' crisis consist of these recommendations:to establish a good cooperative relationship with Indonesia,Malaysia and Singapore ;to strive to build an energy community with Japan,South Korea and other East Asian countries;to establish a healthy competitive/cooperative relationship with the United States;occasionally when necessary to use the Sunda Strait and the Lombok Strait should as alternative channels.The China-Myanmar pipeline,beneficial to the oil supply security of Yunnan and the Southwest China region,is not the fundamental way to resolve China's oil security.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2010年第11期17-22,共6页
International Petroleum Economics
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"中国与全球油气资源重点区域合作研究(项目批准号:09JZD0038)"资助
