摘要
中国和全球经济的发展对海上运输通道的依赖程度呈现越来越高的趋势,对包括海上丝绸之路在内的中国海上运输通道安全水平的动态演化机理进行科学分析,以采取针对性较强的措施切实保障海上运输通道的安全畅通,不仅能对中国经济发展起到推动作用,而且也对通道沿线国家及通道使用国家产生积极的影响。但由于海上运输通道系统具有较强的复杂多变性,且其影响因子具有明显的动态特性,对其未来安全状况的预估必须在全面考虑诸多影响因子的基础上,采用动态分析的方法建立分析模型。为此,作者将海上运输通道安全的诸多影响因子内化于"脆弱性"维度之中,对中国海上运输通道在自然环境、社会经济以及人为因素等三个方面所面临的风险进行了有效识别,构建了中国海上运输通道安全脆弱性演化机理分析的系统动力学模型,借助VENSIM计算机仿真平台对该模型进行了仿真分析和系统灵敏度分析,结果表明:优化通道节点布置、持续有效打击海盗活动以及强化水文气象信息预报工作是降低海上运输通道安全脆弱性的有效途径。
The scientific analysis of evolution mechanism about the safety level of China's marine transport lanes and the ensuing effective measures to ensure the safety and the smooth of lane,can not only promote China's economic development,but also have a positive impact on the countries along the lanes. However,due to the complexity and variability of the marine transport lane system, a number of influencing factors must be considered and a dynamic analysis model should be taken into account for the prediction of its future safety situation. In this paper,the factors affecting the public safety of the marine transport lanes were internalized into the 'vulnerability'dimension,and the risk factors of China's marine transport lanes were identified effectively in three aspects of natural environment, social economy and human factors.Then,a system dynamics model was constructed to analyze the evolution mechanism about safety vulnerability of China's marine transport lanes. At the same time,the simulation analysis and system sensitivity analysis on this model with the VENSIM software were carried out,and the results show that optimizing the lane node layout,continuing effective strike to piracy at sea and strengthening the forecast of hydrological and meteorological information are effective ways to reduce the safety vulnerability of marine transport lanes.
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第11期108-129,共22页
World Economics and Politics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"基于‘脆弱性-能力’视角的海上运输通道安全动态评价研究"(项目批准号:14BZZ070)的资助
关键词
海上运输通道
安全脆弱性
安全水平
系统动力学
marine transport lanes
safety vulnerability
safety level
system dynamics
evolution mechanism
