摘要
研究了国际铁矿石价格的周期性及其对矿业经营的影响。研究表明,铁矿石不变价格的周期长为29a,期望价格41.5美元/t,波幅大于45%。以期望价格为基准,用3a平均价测不准矿业权价值是大概率事件,概率为22/29。据此认为,国际铁矿业战略经营和矿业权价值评估应重视矿业周期的影响。
This paper study the periodicity of international trade price of iron ore and its influence on mining business. It is demonstrated that he cycle length of iron ore＇s fixed price is 29 years,the expectation price is 41. 5 $ /t,and its fluctuation range is over 45%. The inaccurate estimation of iron ore＇s price is an event with a big probability if estimation is based on its three-year average price,the probability is 22 /29. Therefore,it is considered that the periodicity of mining industry should be took account in the international strategic business of iron mining and the value evaluation of mining right.
出处
《矿业研究与开发》
CAS
北大核心
2010年第6期103-105,共3页
Mining Research and Development
基金
国家软科学课题资助项目(2008GXQ6D175)
关键词
铁矿石
期望价格
矿业战略经营
矿业权价值评估
Iron ore
Expectation price
Strategic business of mining industry
Evaluation of mining right
