摘要
目的了解邳州市细菌性痢疾(菌痢)流行因素,探讨相应的预防措施。方法根据邳州市疫情统计资料及现场调查资料,对该市2005-2009年细菌性痢疾流行概况进行分析,同时应用时间序列分析中的分割平均法对2010年菌痢发病水平进行预测。结果 2005-2009年邳州市菌痢年均发病率6.06/10万,发病率自2005年的8.43/10万下降至2009年6.15/10万,全年均有发病,6～8月为发病高峰期,占全年报告病例的60.34%,发病人群以儿童发病为主,占报告发病数的52.86%,其次是农民,占32.94%。男性发病多于女性,男、女性别比为1.64∶1。2010年预测发病率为3.63/10万。结论邳州市2005-2009年菌痢发病率呈平缓下降趋势,散居儿童和农民为发病的高危人群。
Objective To understand the epidemiological features of bacillary dysentery in Pizhou and explore the appropriate preventive measures.Methods The data of bacillary dysentery epidemic in Pizhou from 2005 to 2009 were analyzed and the incidence level in 2010 was predicted by using division average in time series analysis.Results The average annual incidence of bacillary dysentery in Pizhou during this period was 6.06/105, the incidence declined from 8.43/105 in 2005 to 6.15/105 in 2009.The disease occurred all the year round, which peaked during June-August with the cases accounting for 60.34% of the total. The majority of the patients were children, accounting for 52.86%, followed by farmers, accounting for 32.94%. More cases occurred among males than among female, the sex ratio was 1.64∶1. It is estimated that the incidence in 2010 would be 3.54/105. Conclusion The incidence of bacillary dysentery in Pizhou declined gradually from 2005 to 2009, the risk populations included children living separately and farmers.
出处
《预防医学情报杂志》
CAS
2010年第12期969-971,共3页
Journal of Preventive Medicine Information
