摘要
水文模型敏感性分析是用来确定控制模型效率关键参数非常有效的过滤工具之一,并可以帮助理解模型结构,乃至发现模型的结构缺陷,从而有可能改善模型结构。本文通过将全局敏感性分析方法的LH-OAT方法应用到WEP-L模型,并在汉江上游向家坪以上流域进行了成功应用。研究发现,通过LH-OAT方法分析,对于汉江上游向家坪以上流域,河道曼宁糙率和坡面曼宁糙率是影响Nash效率系数最重要的参数。通过对这两个参数的手动调参,模拟的日Nash效率系数从0.35提高到0.75。
In order to research how to hydrometry for meeting the requirement of hydrological analysis and calculation, 10 typical hydrometric stations in the Yangtze River basin were chosen with the design flood peaks, design annual runoff and design annual minimal discharge as the study factors. At first, the error distribution characteristics of the concerned hydrological series were analyzed, and then observed hydrological series were put into the simulated terms to construct the new hydrological series. The original frequeney design values were compared with the values of simulated hydrological time series, and then the allowed upper limit of errors that can be add into hydrological data was given according to the standard, i.e. relatively error should not be more than 5% under 95% confidence level. Finally, the demanded upper limit of errors of the 10 stations ean be acquired by envelope method.
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第6期14-18,41,共6页
Journal of China Hydrology
基金
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体科学基金项目(50721006)
"十一五"国家科技支撑计划(2006BAB04A07和2008BAB29B08)
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2006CB403404)
关键词
分布式水文模型
LH—OAT
WEP
敏感性分析
innovation of hydrological measurement
frequency analysis
random error
L-moment method
random simulation
