摘要
从分析地区负荷特性入手,结合地区工业结构、气象特征等,利用SCADA系统和DAS系统采集信息,从数据源中提取出潜在的有用的信息。加强历史样本数据统计分析,对数据按负荷性质有效分类。结合预测方法库,进行模式匹配,选择相似日匹配等手段,建立负荷综合预测模型,并从管理、技术方面提出相应的提高预测的方法与措施,通过实践运行证明该方法的可行性。
Starting from the characteristics of regional load and combined with regional industrial structure and meteorological characteristics,SCADA system and DAS system were used to collect information so as to extract the potential and useful information from the data source.The historical samples data were statistically analyzed to make the data be effectively classified according to the load characteristics.Combining prediction methods gallery,pattern matching and means of choose similar days matching,an integrated load forecast model,which could improve methods and measures of the load forecasting from management and technical aspects,was established.The practical operation suggests the feasibility of the proposed method.
出处
《华东电力》
北大核心
2010年第9期1309-1312,共4页
East China Electric Power
关键词
负荷特性
预测
相似日
匹配
load characteristics
forecast
similar days
match
