摘要
区域水资源复合系统的可持续利用演变呈不同S形增长模式.基于线性假设的Logistic模型不能够反映演变模式的多样性,所以引入更有弹性的Richards模型来描述区域水资源复合系统的演变过程,将其演变模式分为前后相近型、迅速崛起型和缓慢崛起型;并通过分析不同演变模式的特征得出,迅速崛起型的顶峰期前期、缓慢崛起型的起步期后期也是可持续利用的理想区间.在此基础上,进一步分析了区域水资源复合系统可持续利用长期演变轨迹,表明演变是连续性渐变和间断性"涨落"的结合.最后,以大连市为例,做了定量的应用研究.结果表明,大连市水资源复合系统1980～1988年、1990～1998年的演变轨迹呈规则的S形,其演变模式均属于迅速崛起型;1980～2007年的演变轨迹渐变中存在着"涨落",基本符合S形,属于缓慢崛起型.
Regional water resources complex system（RWRCS）has been developing with different Stype patterns.Due to the linearity of Logistic（L）model,L curve can not express the diversity of evolution pattern,so the Richards（R）model is introduced which is more flexible to describe the evolution diversity of RWRCS.By analyzing the evolution characteristics,the evolution patterns are classified into three types：symmetrical developing type（SDT）,rapid developing in earlier stage type（RDET）and rapid developing in later stage type（RDLT）,and it is considered that the prophase in peak stage of RDET and the anaphase in starting stage of RDLT are also sustainable utilization optimum timing of RWRCS.Furthermore,the long-term process of the sustainable evolution is explored.It is indicated that the long-term process of the sustainable evolution is a combination of continuous gradual change and discontinuous fluctuations.In the end,Dalian City is taken as an example to research evolution track of RWRCS.The results show that the evolution process of Dalian water resources complex system（DWRCS）exhibited obvious S-type in 1980-1988and 1990-1998,and the evolution patterns of these two passages were RDET.In 1980-2007,the fluctuations existed in the gradual change process,but the evolution process of DWRCS basically corresponds to S-type,and the evolution pattern is RDLT.
出处
《大连理工大学学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期749-755,共7页
Journal of Dalian University of Technology
基金
"十一五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(重点项目2007BAB28B01)
