摘要
本文通过分析水资源复合系统的内涵,认为水资源复合系统发展过程可以用Logistic方程表示。即根据Logistic方程,将水资源复合系统发展过程分为起步期、成长期、成熟期和衰退期四个阶段。在Logistic曲线的成长期和成熟期,水资源利用水平发展速度较快,复合系统各要素协调发展,是水资源的可持续利用阶段。而区域水资源复合系统的持续发展,其过程可以用组合Logistic方程表示,即长时段因子的一个Logistic过程,表现为短时段因子的多个Logistic过程的组合。人类可以通过调整中时段因子和改变短时段因子,来实现区域水资源的可持续利用和复合系统的可持续发展。
Water resources, society, economy and ecological environment are reciprocally coupled in a region and form a composite system. In specific period, the water resources utilization level has a threshold value, which has damp effects on the increase of water resources utilization. Consequently, the development process of regional water resources can be described by the Logistic equation with four periods：starting period, growing period, mature period and overripe period. The water resources utilization level increases rapidly in growing period and mature period, which are the sustainable periods with harmonious developments of all elements. The sustainable utilization can be realized by changing the factors in various periods.
出处
《水利学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第1期16-20,共5页
Journal of Hydraulic Engineering
基金
江苏省教育厅自然科学基金资助项目(03KJB570167)
