摘要
针对海洋环境评价及其预测的特点,在层次分析法和灰色理论的基础上开发出一种新的系统模型方法——灰色层次动态分析模型。该模型有效地消除了传统层次分析法主观误差的产生,并在模型分析的基础上建立了针对性较强的渤海湾天津段海洋环境综合指数等级评价体系。在实例研究中,结合该海域15个站点2002～2007年5项主要水质指标的监测数据,应用模型对研究区海洋环境进行了微观和宏观分析以及发展趋势预测。结果表明:整个渤海湾天津段海洋环境污染有进一步加重的趋势,到2011年只有4个站点海域水质能达到良好等级;在空间上,整个研究区污染有自近海向海盆降低的趋势;并确定了一个污染最为严重的海域以及两个相对次要重点污染海域及其对应的关键污染指标,从而为渤海湾天津段的海洋环境污染防治提供了决策依据。
The evaluation and forecasting of sea water environment for the sea environmental management system is complicated by the multi-hierarchy,multi-factor,multi-uncertainty.According to these characteristics and in order to effectively eliminate the subjective errors of traditional analytic hierarchy process,this article presents a development modeling approach,grey dynamic hierarchy analysis（GDHA） model,based on analytic hierarchy process,grey target theory and GM（1,1） approaches,which can be used to evaluate and forecasting the sea environment from both micro and macro aspects.And the range system of comprehensive indices of sea water environment in Bohai Bay can be constructed based on analysis of the model process.In the case study,this new model is used to analyze the key pollution factors and the tendency of sea environment of the monitoring sites in Bohai Bay,with the data of 5 main water indices of 15 monitoring sites during the year 2002～2007.The results show that the pollution tend is worse in the whole Bohai Bay,and the sea environment of only 4 sea areas will reach standard of good.For the spatial distribution,pollution of sea environment in Bohai Bay is decreased from near-shore to off-shore and the worst sea areas containing sites 4,6,7,8,should be brought under control in the near future,where BOD,phosphorus and nitrogen should be controlled as the main pollution factors.And there are also two second worse sea areas contained 2,3,12,15,with the main pollution factors COD,BOD,phosphorus and nitrogen to be controlled in the near future,which can be used as the basis for the ocean environmental protection in Bohai bay.
出处
《海洋环境科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期683-688,共6页
Marine Environmental Science
基金
海洋公益性行业科研重大专项经费项目(200805080)
