摘要
一般对居民旅游消费行为的数量分析,主要运用回归方法,得出变量之间的关系是固定不变的,不能反映变量之间随时间变化的动态数量关系。利用状态空间模型建立了中国农村居民旅游消费与收入之间的变参数模型,并检验了两变量之间的变协整关系,以动态机制解读了近年来中国农村居民旅游消费状况,得出以下主要结论:1994-2007年中国农村居民边际旅游消费倾向呈现先上升后下降的趋势,呈现一个动态变化的过程;农村居民收入与旅游消费之间存在着均衡比例变化的变协整关系。
In general,the quantity analysis of the residents tourism consume behavior uses the regression method,and cannot reflect the dynamic quantity relation with time varying.This text makes use of the state space model to build up the time varying parameter model between the rural residents tourism consumption and income,and to test the varying co-integration among the variables.It explains the residents tourism consumption situation in the dynamic mechanism in recent years,and gets main conclusions as follows： from 1994 to 2006 the marginal propensity of tourism consumption of rural residents presents the trend of rising first and then descending behind;and has a process of a dynamic evolvement;there is the varying co-integration on the relation of the income and the tourism consumption.
出处
《旅游论坛》
CSSCI
2010年第4期463-467,共5页
Tourism Forum
关键词
农村居民
边际旅游消费倾向
状态空间模型
the rural residents
the marginal propensity of tourism consumption
state space model
