摘要
采用线性回归、气候倾向率、积分湿度指标和干湿指数分析方法,系统分析降水与农业需水和旱涝程度。结果表明,近50年作物生长季降水倾向率为-19.983mm/10a,降水量趋势减少约100mm。有6～7成的年景降水基本满意,自然降水农业需水满意程度趋势下降23%。因降水减少,气候类型在转变,由半湿润、偏旱型转向中旱气候类型。生长季平均缺水56mm,有36%的年份受干旱威胁;春季旱情最重,概率为64%;秋季次之,概率为58%;夏季最轻,概率为24%。5月播种出苗阶段干旱概率为70%,对农业生产影响最大。
Linear regression,climate trend rate,integral humidity indicators and analysis of wet and dry index were adopted,precipitation and agricultural water demand and dryness degree were systematically analyzed. The results indicated that the precipitation tendency rate of crop growing season in recent 50a was-19.983mm/10a,precipitation trend reduced about 100mm. The precipitation of 6%-7% year was basic satisfaction,and agricultural water demand satisfactory degree reduced 23%. Due to reducing precipitation,climate type changed from sub-humid,partial drought into moderate type. In growing season,mean water shortage 56mm,36% of the year in the drought-threatened; spring drought was the most serious,the probability was 64%; followed by autumn,the probability was 58%; summer minimum,the probability was 24%. The drought probability in May was 70%,which has significant effect on agriculture production.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2010年第23期12580-12582,12585,共4页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
关键词
趋势变化
旱涝程度
降水
农业需水
新民
Change in trend
Dryness
Precipitation
Agricultural water demand
Xinmin
