摘要
以地处西北干旱地区的榆林市为例,通过收集该地区多年实际用水资料,对比分析了1980至2005年榆林市国民经济各部门用水变化特点。并结合国家技术细则,按照用水"新口径",建立了生产、生活、生态需水预测模型,对未来不同水平年,不同保证率情况下国民经济各部门需水量进行了预测。结果表明:在过去的25年中,榆林市用水结构发生了较大变化。其中,生活用水比例从1980年的4%增加到2005年的8%,生态用水比例从1980年的0.002%增加到2005年的0.3%,而生产用水比例则从1980年的96%减少到2005年的91%;需水预测模型分析表明,在未来水平年,榆林市需水总量将呈明显增加趋势。而整个需水结构中,生产需水所占比重最大,增长幅度剧烈;随着环保意识的增强,生态用水也将呈现快速增长。因此,在今后的水资源规划与管理中,必须采取有效的措施,从调整产业结构、降低用水定额、改变用水方式等方面抑制需水的增长,逐步提高用水效率,从需水管理的角度实现供需平衡。
Water consumption structure of Yulin city from 1980 to 2005 were analyzed based on the data of water consumption in the past years.According to statistical data in national technology regulation,we established the model to predict water demand of industry,domestic,ecology in the future.The result indicated that in the past 25 years,proportion of domestic water consumption increased from 4% to 8%,the ecology water consumption also increased from 0.002% to 0.3%,but the proportion of production water consumption were reduces from 96% to 91%;but results in the future predicted by the model showed that proportion of industry water consumption and ecology water consumption will have a further growth with the development of economic construction.Due to the particularity of Yulin city and complexity for water demand prediction,some uncertainty factors has not possibly taken into consideration,the new methods should be applied to predict water consumption of Yulin in the future.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第10期76-81,共6页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
水利部公益性行业重大专项"气候变化对我国水安全影响及对策研究"(项目编号:200801001)资助
关键词
用水量
需水预测
用水结构
榆林市
water consumption
water demand prediction
water consumed structure
Yulin city
