摘要
针对船舶机舱火灾风险的特点,提出了基于贝叶斯网络的船舶机舱火灾风险分析方法。根据机舱各区域发生火灾频率不同,把机舱分为主机区域、发电机区域、锅炉区域和电气设备等四个火灾发生频率高的区域,按照火灾从初始事件到发生的整个过程,建立船舶机舱火灾贝叶斯网络模型,对风险因素进行概率推理,判断火情,为消防决策提供依据;然后,通过对该网络进行基于证据的敏感性分析,得到影响机舱火灾风险因素的影响排序,并可以根据排序情况采取相应措施减少火灾的发生。
A method on fire risk analysis in ship engine room is proposed based-on Bayesian networks and according to the particular properties of the ship engine room fire.Since fires do not occur uniformly at every locations in the engine room space.Four high-risk areas,including main engine,generator,boiler and electrical equipment,are identified.Considering the fire developing process from initial event to ignition,a model of ship engine room fire risk based-on Bayesian networks is built,with which probability inference of the risk factors can be performed.Bayesian inference can help to judge the fire disaster and to give advice on the decision making of fire fighting.A sensitivity analysis of the Bayesian networks model related to evidence is made to sort the fire risk factors.In terms of the sorting sequence,appropriate measure can be taken to prevent fire occurrence.
出处
《中国造船》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第3期199-205,共7页
Shipbuilding of China
关键词
船舶
机舱
贝叶斯网络
火灾
风险
敏感性分析
ship
engine room
Bayesian networks
fire
risk
sensitivity analysis
