摘要
储蓄率在现代经济增长理论中占有极其重要的地位,是影响经济增长率的重要变量,大量实证研究也证实了这一点。基于中国1978～2008年间的数据,采用Granger因果检验来分析储蓄率和经济增长之间的关系,分析结果显示:经济增长率是储蓄率的Granger原因,但储蓄率对经济增长率的影响作用不显著。因此,中国宏观调控政策的重点应当放在启动消费上,适度改善投资结构,加强对可贷资金的引导和规范,保证储蓄向投资转化渠道的畅通。
In the economic growth theories, savings rate occupies an extremely important position. It is an important variable that affects the economic growth rate, which has been proved by a large number of empirical studies. Based on the data of China among 1978-2008 years, this paper uses Granger causality test to analyze the relationship between the savings rate and the economic growth. The analysis shows that the rate of economic growth is the Granger cause of savings growth, but the impact of savings rate has no significant effect on economic growth rate. Thus, China’s macro-control policies should focus on promoting consumption, improving the investment structure moderately, strengthening the guidance and regulations of loanable funds, and guaranteeing that the transformation channels of savings to investment is easy and smooth.
出处
《创新》
2010年第5期61-64,共4页
Innovation
