摘要
延迟退休是否会带来二次人口红利一直存在观点上的分歧。本文通过构建拓展的世代交叠一般均衡模型,分析了延迟退休对储蓄率、资本积累和产出等经济变量的影响。我们的研究表明,延迟退休对总产出的影响取决于理性行为人降低储蓄引致产出下降效应与劳动力供给增加引致产出增加效应之间的强弱。数值模拟表明,延迟退休过程中的预期寿命增加可以产生二次人口红利,延迟退休年龄5年(10年),产生二次人口红利所需的平均预期寿命提高的幅度不超过5.5岁(8岁)。本文的研究结果表明,从人口红利的角度而言,把提高人均预期寿命纳入到经济发展的指标体系内具有重要的意义。
The study of whether or not the population aging can bring the secondary demographic dividend does not reach an agreement. This paper develops an extended OLG model and studies the impact of delaying retirement age on saving, capital accumulation and output in the equilibrium. The study shows that it has an impact on gross output depends on the control effect between decreasing saving leading to output decline effect and increasing labor force leading to output increasing effect. Data simulate shows that increasing life expectancy can bring the secondary demographic dividend. When the retirement age is raised for 5 years or 10 years, the condition for bringing which is that the life expectancy should raised no more than 5.5 or 8. In terms of the secondary demographic dividend, our study shows that we write the improvement of life expectancy into the economic development index system will have important implications.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第1期52-68,共17页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD042)
教育部哲学社会科学重大攻关项目(14JZD027)的支持
关键词
延迟退休
预期寿命
二次人口红利
Delaying Retirement Age, Life Expectancy, the Secondary Demographic Dividend
