摘要
笔者认为当今的全球变暖可能是一种百年尺度的气候变化,其中包含若干个"年—10年"尺度的次一级的冷暖波动,去冬的严寒低温可能是年尺度的波动,它不大可能改变百年尺度的全球变暖趋势。近些年中国出现了一些罕见的高温、干旱、暴雨强降水事件,出现了一些新的气候极端值,但却不宜简单地将每个事件都直接归因于全球变暖。最近50多年中国温度变化与全球迅速变暖势相趋同;降水和干旱变化有明显的区域差异;登陆台风数量和强沙尘暴的发生均呈现下降趋势,观测表明未出现随全球变暖越来越多、越来越强的变化趋势。同时,经济发展对气候变化的敏感性的提高是气候灾害损失增多的重要原因。最后笔者指出,面对气候变化,避害和趋利两方面都需要考虑。
The author believed that the current global warming is likely to be climate change on a centurial scale, including therein several annual-decadal scales as secondary warm and cold waves. The severe cold winter in 2009/2010 may be a variation at an annual scale and hence unable to modify the global warming trend on a centurial basis. In recent years, China has witnessed rare heat waves, regional severe droughts and storm rainfall, with their strengths higher than the previous events. But it is unlikely to attribute each to global warming. Concurrent with the quick warming worldwide in the past 60 years the trends of temperature in China are similar to those in other parts of the world but the regional differences in precipitation and drought are pronounced in the country. Also, the number of landing typhoons and the frequency of intense sandstorms are on the decrease, whose observations do not indicate the increasing trends both in number and intensity in association with global warming. The author maintains that the increase in climate sensitivity of economic growth is the principal cause of increased climate disasters and loss. Thus, both seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages should be taken into consideration in face of climate change.
出处
《自然杂志》
北大核心
2010年第4期213-216,206,共5页
Chinese Journal of Nature
关键词
全球变暖
极端气候事件
气候灾害
global warming, climate extreme, climate disaster
