摘要
基于"能源-经济-环境"的MARKAL-MACRO模型和数理人口学中的Keyfitz模型,测算未来中国能源消费需求;考虑能源效率、能源结构的变化以及气候变化问题的约束,设定了能源消费的3种情景,并分别测算了CO_2排放量.结果表明,在基准情景下,中国的CO_2排放在2042年达到峰值,为118.47亿t;在能源结构优化情景下,CO_2排放在2036年达到峰值,为107.53亿t;在气候变化约束情景下,CO_2排放在2031年达到峰值,为94.72亿t,相对于基准情景,排放峰值降低了23.75亿t,且峰值时间提前11a.随着城市化与工业化的推进,电力、水泥、钢铁行业的碳排放将先上升后下降;由于机动车保有量的增加,交通运输业的碳排放将持续上升.
On the basis of MARKAL-MACRO model of＂Energy-Economy-Environment＂system and Keyfitz model of demography,energy demand in China in the future was calculated.Three scenarios were put forward taking into account of energy efficiency,energy structure and restriction of climate change.CO_2 Emissions in China will reach peak value 11.85 Gt in 2042 in reference scenario;10.75 Gt in 2036 in optimized scenario;and 9.47 Gt in 2031 in restriction scenario of climate change.Compare with reference scenario,carbon emissions in restriction scenario of climate change will decline by 2.38 Gt,and peak time will be 11years earlier.With the development of urbanization and industrialization, carbon emissions from electric power,cement,steel will rise gradually then go down;but emissions from traffic will go up continuously because of the increase of vehicle fleet.
出处
《中国环境科学》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第8期1142-1148,共7页
China Environmental Science
基金
教育部哲学社会科学重大项目(08JZD0021-D)
国家社会科学基金重点项目(08ASH006)
国家人口计生委"十二五"规划项目
