摘要
文章根据中国各省《人口与计划生育条例》的规定,以公安部2006年户籍农业和非农业人口比例、少数民族分布状况及计划生育管理实践中的有关数据,推算出中国政策规定生育一孩、二孩、三孩及以上的人口比例为:56.0∶42.9∶1.1,中国人口政策预期终身生育率上限为1.45。在考虑人口和计划生育工作实际控制能力的情况下,中国人口预期终身生育率实际上限为1.65,实际预期终身生育率与政策预期终身生育率存在较大差异。
By conducting an estimation based on population policies, divide between agricultural and non-agricultural population and other relevant data in different provinces, this paper concludes that the policy fertility is about 1.45 children per family at most. Given the administration is not capable of fully implementing the Family Planning Regulations, the actual fertility is estimated to be 1.65 children per family at most. There is thus a significant difference between the actual fertility and policy fertility.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第4期13-22,共10页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
