摘要
以沂河临沂站以上流域为研究对象,对1951-2002年的水文时间序列资料进行分析,研究流域径流演变特征及其驱动力因子。结果表明,降雨量变化不明显,多年平均径流量变化很大,呈下降趋势,且径流演变规律表现为明显的阶段性,在不同阶段呈现出不同的演变规律,具体可分为3个阶段（1951-1959年为自然因子影响阶段、1960-1975年为过渡阶段和1976-2002年为人类影响活跃阶段）。最后在定性分析自然因子和人类活动的影响程度的基础上作了定量分析,结果显示,随着人类活动的日益加剧,其对径流演变的影响贡献率呈增大趋势,于第2阶段开始显现,第3阶段影响最大。
With the basin above Yihe River as the research objects,through the analysis of the hydrological time series data during 1951-2002,the characteristics and driving factors of runoff variation of the basin were studied.The results showed that the characteristics and trends of rainfall variations had inconspicuous decrease,and runoff evolution had changed significantly and tended to decrease from 1951 to 2002.Moreover,with the analysis,it could be concluded that the runoff time series could be divided into three periods,i.e.,1951-1959（which was the moment of nature factors occupying advantage point）,1960-1975（which was transition moment）,and 1976-2002（which was the moment of cooperative effort between nature factors and human activities and the human activities become dominant factors）.There were different evolution characteristics for different moment,and it trended to decrease as a whole.Finally,in order to find out the driving factors for the annual runoff variations,the relationship and impact between natural factors,human activities and runoff was analyzed,based on the qualitative analysis.Through correlation analysis,the results showed that the variation in the runoff was dependent on human activities more and more evident with the human activities growing,and the ratio trended to increase,and it appeared in the second stage and reached the maximum in the third stage.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2010年第16期8563-8565,8572,共4页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
关键词
径流演变
驱动因子
降雨-径流关系
人类活动
沂河流域
Runoff variations
Driving factors
Rainfall-runoff relationship
Human activities
Yihe River Basin
