摘要
监测和预测地震等自然灾害的需要，促进了大地测量学和地球物理学等学科的相互交融。经过３０余年的探索，一门地学前沿交叉新学科———“地壳形变学”已初步形成。地壳形变学已拥有空间—地面—深部立体测地系统，具有在多种空间尺度内精确测定现今地壳运动（秒～数十年）和灾害孕育过程的空前强大能力，从而可望击破长期制约现今地球动力学和地震预测的地球空间信息的“瓶颈”。在２１世纪，地壳形变学将成为推动大陆动力学和地震预报的主要科技动力之一，推进精确定量测定大陆动力学现今过程，限定现今大陆动力学性质并在验证解释地质学模型诸方面发挥特有作用。它将促使地震预测摆脱“粘滞状态”，由“经验预测”走向“图像动力学预测”；在揭示大陆地震孕育时空过程、判定地震大形势、划定危险区、搜寻和跟踪震源动力学演化过程及研究动力学响应耦合等方面作出新贡献。
The requirements for earthquake monitoring and predicting promote the mutual exchange among geodesy and geophysics and others. After probing over 30 years, a new forward and cross geoscience, the Crustal Deformation, is formed premarily. The Crustal Deformation possesses with the space, surface and deep stereometric system, and has the unprecedentedly powerful capability for exactly determining the current crust movement (second～decades years) and disaster preparation process in many space scales. Therefore it could be hopeful that the “bottle neck” restricting the earth space information of the present geodynamics and earthquake prediction over a long time is broken up. In the 21th century, the crustal deformation would become one of the main scientific impetuses to push forward the earth dynamics and seismic prediction, and play the excellent role for precise and quantitative measurement of geodynamics, restriction on the feature of present mainland dynamics, test and interpretation of the geology model and others. It would make the earthquake prediction cast off the “sticky and stagnant condition” , and move from “the experimental prediction” towards “the pattern dynamics prediction”. It must be a new contribution to exploring the time-space process of earthquake preparation, deciding the big circumstance of earthquake, dividing the danger seismic area, finding and trading the evalutionary process of source dynamics and researching the response and coupling of dynamics and so on.
出处
《地壳形变与地震》
CSCD
1999年第1期1-13,共13页
Crustal Deformation and Earthquake
基金
国家自然科学基金
地震科学联合基金
九.五重点项目
国家攀登项目
关键词
地震预测
地壳形变学
立体测地系统
大陆动力学
earthquake prediction, crustal deformation, stereometric system, continental dynamics, pattern dynamics.
