摘要
全球经济增长受国际金融危机影响大幅度回落,对中国经济增长影响很大。危机之后的能源电力需求出现了比较复杂的情况。本文讨论了两次危机中的短期能源电力需求走势,解析为什么GDP与电力需求关系短期可以出现比较大的背离。通过认识国际经济发展过程中的阶段性能源电力需求增长的规律,提出目前中国处于工业化城市化发展阶段,其能源电力需求增长快速而且是刚性的。在此基础上,本文讨论了国际油价与国内煤价走势,并对中国的煤价与通货膨胀进行了相关性分析。提出在国际油价上涨的带动下,近期国内煤炭价格将走高,PPI可能会比较快抬头,并传导到CPI。因此,政府应当准备相应的措施,以应对其对通货膨胀的影响。
Global economic growth has fallen substantially, affected by the international financial crisis, which also has a major impact on economic growth in China. The situation of the demand for energy and electricity after the crisis become complicated. This paper firstly discusses the trend of short - term demand for energy and electricity during the two crises, and analyzes the reasons of possible deviation between GDP and electricity demand in short run. By understanding the characteristics of energy demand growth in development process, this paper then points out that China＇s current energy demand growth rate is high and demand is rigid , as China is in the process of industrialization and urbanization. Based on the analysis, this paper also discusses international oil price movements and the trend of domestic coal price, and carried out correlation analysis of coal prices and inflation in China.＂ The paper concludes that, driven by the raise of international oil prices, the domestic coal prices will go up. China＇s PPI would be more likely to rise firstly, and then transmitted to the CPI. Therefore, the Government should be prepared to deal with its impact on inflation.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第1期46-57,共12页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
长江学者科研配套经费和国家自然科学基金(70841025)的支持
关键词
金融危机
能源电力需求
煤炭价格
通货膨胀
financial crisis
energy and electricity demand
coal prices
inflation
