摘要
目的研究开发适合中老年人群的糖代谢异常患病危险度评估工具。方法于2008年4至11月采用分层整群抽样的方法，在成都城乡地区40～79岁中老年人口中开展问卷调查，并进行血压、空腹血糖、葡萄糖75g餐后血糖、血脂、血尿酸、身高、体质量、腰围等检测，共获取有效调查资料5205份。进行判别分析及多因素l^gistic回归分析，建立量化评分体系，ROC分析筛选量化评分体系的界点，336例体检人群验证简易评分模型判别效能。结果判别分析男女模型准确度分别为79．04％和81．35％。年龄、工作体力强度、体育锻炼、家族史、兄弟姐妹糖尿病史、体质指数、腹型肥胖和高血压病史8个指标构成男性简易评分模型；年龄、工作体力强度、体育锻炼、家族史、兄弟姐妹糖尿病史、体质指数、腹型肥胖、高血压病史、分娩次数和妊娠糖尿病史构成女性简易评分模型。ROC曲线下面积男性模型为0．702，女性模型为0．728。在其他人群应用中男性模型灵敏度和特异度分别为86．86％和65．12％，女性模型灵敏度和特异度分别为88．89％和72．97％。结论初步开发的中老年人群糖代谢异常患病危险度评估工具简便可行，有一定实用性，可应用于中老年人群糖代谢异常的筛查。
Objective To develop the evaluation tool for the risk level of abnormal glucose metabolism morbidity in the middle-aged and elder populations. Methods By the stratified cluster sampling method, a survey was conducted in middle-aged and elder populations aged 40 -70 years old in urban and rural areas of Chengdu during April-November 2008. The parameters included blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, blood glucose after oral administration of 75 g glucose, blood lipid, blood uric acid, height, body weight and waistline, etc. A total of 5205 valid copies of questionnaires were obtained. A discriminant analysis and a multifactorial logistic regression analysis were conducted. The quantitative scoring system was established and the ROC analysis conducted to screen the boundary point of the quantitative scoring system. The discriminant performance of simple scoring model was conducted in 336 subjects for physical examination. Results The accuracies of diseriminant analysis in male and female models were 79. 04% and 81.35% respectively. The simple male scoring mode included the following eight parameters： age, physical work intensity, parental history of diabetes mellitus, sibling＇s history of diabetes mellitus, BMI index, existing abdominal obesity and history of hypertension. The simple female scoring mode included the following eight parameters： age, physical work intensity, physical training, parental history of diabetes meUitus, sibling＇s history of diabetes mellitus, BMI index, existing abdominal obesity, history of hypertension, number of parturition and history of gestational diabetes mellitus. The ROC AUCs were 0. 701 and 0. 728 in male and female models respectively. During applications in other populations, the sensitivity and specificity of the male model were 86. 86% and 65. 12% while those of female model 88. 89% and 72. 97% respectively. Conclusions The newly developed evaluation tool for the risk level of abnormal glucose metabolism morbidity in middle-aged and elder populations is both simple and practical. With an excellent practicability; it may be used to screen abnormal glucose metabolism in middle-aged and elder populations.
出处
《中华医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第12期839-843,共5页
National Medical Journal of China
基金
基金项目：成都市“十一五”科技规划重大项目（成科技[2007]20号）
