摘要
利用安徽省78个气象站1971-2005年资料,采用FAO Penman-Monteith模型和一季稻作物系数计算作物需水量,得到针对一季稻的农业干旱指标;在分析了1980年以来一季稻主要发育期变化不大的基础上,利用多年农业气象观测资料,采用詹森乘法作物-水分模型新解法进行一季稻干旱敏感性系数分解,得到一季稻逐旬敏感性系数;建立了基于农业干旱强度、作物敏感性和区域脆弱性的一季稻旱灾损失评估模型。试用结果表明,模型的相对误差大部分为20%～35%,绝对误差为2.9～4.0,基本满足业务应用。由于各地水稻品种不同,抗灾能力也有差异,因此模型误差仍偏大,需进一步修正模型,并加强抗灾能力对减轻灾害损失贡献的研究。
Based on the meteorological data of 78 weather stations of Anhui Province in the period from 1971 to 2005, crop water requirements are calculated by use of coefficient of single cropping rice and FAO Penman- Monteith Model and agricultural drought index of single cropping rice are obtained. Analysis on the data since 1980 shows that there is little change of main developmental phases of single cropping rice. By use of many years of agro-meteorological observation data and novel solution of Jensen crop-water equation, drought sensitivity coefficients of single cropping rice of each ten day was calculated. The model for assessing drought-related yield loss of single cropping rice is established based on the intensity of agricultural drought, crop sensitivity and regional vulnerability. The tryout results show that the most of relative errors of the model are 20% -35% and its absolute errors are 2. 9 -4.0, which can basically satisfy the application. Because there are differences in rice varieties and resistant ability to disasters in the different regions, the errors of the models are still large and the model needs to be further modified. It is thought that research on the contribution of disaster resistant ability to disaster reduction should be strengthened.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2010年第1期13-17,共5页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
中国气象局重点支持省所项目"安徽主要农作物旱灾损失评估业务化技术研究"资助(CMATG2006S02)
关键词
干旱损失
动态评估
模型
农作物
安徽
drought loss, dynamic assessment
model
crops
Anhui province
