摘要
为探讨人工社会在土地利用变化研究领域中的应用,研究创建了一个模拟土地利用变化过程的人工社会模型(LUC-ASM)。该模型以农户和农民为两类主体(agents),模拟分析不同社会经济条件和政策影响下,两类主体对自己承包土地利用方式的微观决策所可能产生的宏观效应及其时空变化特征。以鄱阳湖区一个现实村落为主要研究对象,以农户从事各类生产活动的行为特征为准则,利用LUC-ASM模型模拟未来30年内该村落土地利用变化过程。结果表明,未来这一地区土地利用的变化与人口增长结构调整方式、国家土地利用与环保政策、社会经济发展态势等因素密切相关;在城市化的影响下,该地区的农业劳动力将会出现短缺,农村土地有可能被撂荒,需要及早采用政策措施予以避免。总体而言,LUC-ASM模型能够形象地反映土地利用变化过程的微观驱动机理及各种社会经济与环境因素影响的宏观效应,有助于深化我们对人与自然环境相互作用的认识。
In this study,an artificial society model of land use change（LUC-ASM） is developed in terms of the behaviors of households living in the Poyang Lake region of China.In the model,farm families and farmers are chosen as the active agents,and the process of their land use change under different conditions of social,economic and policy conditions are simulated.Some useful emerged phenomenon and laws can be found from micro to macro levels in the evolution process.In the instance,the model is used to simulate the land use change process in the coming decades of a country in the Poyang Lake region.The results indicate that land use change in the future is relevant to population composition,agriculture policies,and national economic environment.Under the influence of urbanization,agricultural labor shortages will be a serious problem and rural land may be abandoned.So effectives measures and policies are needed to avoid arable land abandoned.The instance in this study indicates that LUC-ASM can simulate the process of land use change and emerge the effects of various social economic factors perfectly.This model can be used to help understand the interaction between human and natural environment in depth.
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第3期353-367,共15页
Journal of Natural Resources
基金
中国科学院百人计划项目
科技部支撑项目(2006BAC08B06)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(40561011)
关键词
土地利用
人工社会
农户行为
基于主体建模
土地撂荒
模型构建
land use
households＇ behaviors
artificial society
agent-based modeling
abandonment
model building
