摘要
在界定了面板数据含义的基础上,介绍了面板数据回归模型及其具体估计方法。结合江苏省耕地利用现实情况,选取了总人口、地区生产总值、农业产值、固定资产总投资、社会消费品零售总额、城镇居民人均可支配收入、农民人均村收入7个对耕地变化有影响的社会经济因子作为解释变量,耕地作为被解释变量。利用江苏省13个市2000～2008年的面板数据,根据Hausman检验结果选用了固定系数、变截距的固定效应模型,并运用该模型构建了江苏省13个市的耕地社会经济模型。结果表明,人口因素是江苏省耕地变化最重要的驱动力因子,社会经济因素对耕地的固定效应较弱,农业产值的回归系数不显著,地区生产总值的模型系数所反映的经济含义与现实不符,模型从经济意义上来说总体是显著的。
Based on the meaning of Panel Data,regression model and its specific estimation method of Panel Data are introduced.Combining with the actual situation of farmland in Jiangsu Province,socio-economic factors affecting the farmland change is taken as the explanatory variables,such as total population,regional GDP,agricultural output value,total investment of fixed asset,total retail sales of social consumer goods,per capita disposable income of urban residents,and per capita income of farmer.And farmland is taken as the explained variable.According to the Panel Data of 13 cities in Jiangsu Province,Fixed Effect Model of fixed coefficient and variable intercept is selected based on the result of Hausman Test.This model is also used to construct the farmland socio-economic model of 13 cities in Jiangsu province.Result shows that population is the most important driving force factor of farmland change in Jiangsu Province;socio-economic factor has relatively weak fixed effects on farmland;regression coefficient of agricultural output is not significant;and model coefficient of GDP reflects a different economic meaning from the reality.Thus,this model is generally significant from an economic sense.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2010年第5期2482-2483,共2页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(50774092)
中南大学研究生创新基金项目(1343-77336)
