摘要
耕地是农业生产的基础,是维护粮食安全的重要保障,经济和社会快速发展对耕地面积减少的影响是当前土地利用变化研究领域的热点之一。作者借鉴环境压力方程STIRPAT模型,以长沙市1978—2005年耕地面积数据及其相关社会经济影响因素的时间序列数据为例,分析了人口、产业结构和城市化水平对耕地面积变化的影响及富裕度与耕地占用之间的相关性。结果表明:人口数量的变化是引起改革开放以来长沙市耕地面积减少的最主要因素;产业结构变化(第二、三产业增加值占地区生产总值比重)和城市化率的变化对耕地面积的变化也发挥着重要作用;利用STIRPAT模型计算发现富裕度与耕地面积变化之间并不存在Kuznets曲线规律。研究认为缓解长沙市耕地面积减少的压力可从控制人口、调整产业结构、提高城市化水平、转变经济增长方式等方面入手。
Cultivated land is the base of agriculture production,and is an important factor to ensure food security.The impact of rapid economic and social development on the reduction of cultivated land area is one of the hotspots in land-use change researches currently.Introducing STIRPAT model,influence of population, industrial structure and the level of urbanization on the cultivated land changes were analyzed,and the relationship between prosperous level and cultivated land area were analyzed in Changsha City,using the cultivated land data and related socio-economic development data from 1978 to 2005.The following conclusions are drawn from the above analysis：population change is the main cause for cultivated land reduction in Changsha City since the reform and opening;changes of the urbanization rate and proportion of the secondary and tertiary-industry added value to regional GDP of the area also play an important role in the cultivated land reduction;in the scope of observational data,the relationship between the prosperous level and the change of cultivated land in Changsha City are different from Kuznets principal.Accordingly,several suggestions are proposed in the study to mitigate the pressure of cultivated land reduction,including population control,industrial structure adjustment,urbanization level improvement and economic growth mode transition,etc.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第3期258-263,共6页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
国家科技支撑计划项目(007BAC29B05)
中南林业科技大学人才引进项目(2008Y002)
国家自然科学基金项目(0771008)
