摘要
通过对杭州1951年以来的48个大雪个例资料,结合海温、大气环流特征资料进行周期分析、突变检测、相关分析,给出杭州大雪出现频次的周期、突变点,发现大雪出现频次、降雪强度与海温冷暖事件存在高关联,特别是与NINO1+2区海温存在密切的联系,根据所得结论可以较好的对大雪发生趋势作出预测。
Data of 48 heavy snow cases since 1951 in Hangzhou combined with characteristic data of SST and atmospheric circulation are used to study the frequency period and catastrophe time of heavy snow climate in Hangzhou. According to the results form periodic analysis,catastrophe test and correlation analysis,it is found that the occurrance frequency and intensity of heavy snow are highly correlative to the cold and warm events of SST, especially the SST in NINO1＋2. It is possible to accurately predict the tendency of heavy snow by using the conclusion.
出处
《科技通报》
北大核心
2010年第1期63-66,76,共5页
Bulletin of Science and Technology
关键词
气象
大雪
海温
周期
Heavy snow
SST
frequency
catastrophe
