摘要
出口贸易是影响经济增长的重要因素。采用1997～2008年的数据,描述了我国水产品出口的特点,并借助协整分析技术、Granger因果检验方法,对水产品出口与渔业经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,水产品出口总额与渔业经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,水产品出口增长与渔业经济增长之间存在单向Granger因果关系,即水产品出口是渔业经济增长的原因,而渔业经济增长并不是水产品出口的原因。
Export is an important factor that affects economic growth. According to the data from 1997-2008, export characteristics of Chinese aquatic products were described in this paper and the relationship between export of aquatic products and economic growth of Chinese fishery was analyzed empirically by using the co-integration theory and the Granger causality test method. The results showed that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the total amount of aquatic products exports and the economic growth of fishery; there is a one-way Granger causality between the export growth of aquatic products and the economic growth of fishery, which means that the export of aquatic products is the reason for the economic growth of fishery, but the economic growth of fishery is not the reason for the export of aquatic products.
出处
《湖南农业科学》
2009年第12期131-134,共4页
Hunan Agricultural Sciences
关键词
水产品出口
渔业经济增长
协整
格兰杰因果检验
export of aquatic products
fishery economic growth
co-integration theory
Granger causality test method
