摘要
本文应用圆形分布构成比法与余弦模型对某地开展计划兔疫前后各12年麻疹发病季节特征进行分析。求得计划免疫前麻疹的发病前峰时点为4月中旬，高峰时区为2月上旬～6月下旬；计划免疫后麻疹发病的高峰时点为3月下旬，高峰时区为元月下旬～5月中旬，显示开展计划免疫后，麻疹发病高峰有所提高，表明控制措施也应提前，通过对求得模型的拟合，并求得第二谐量三角多项式的决定系数均在96％以上，表明用该模型拟合该资料是可行的。
Seasonal feature of occuring measles before and after immune planning was studied with proportion method of circle distribution and cosine model. Before immune planning the period was 12 years, and so was the period after immune planning. Before immune planning, the peak point to occurs measles was the second days of the month of April, and the peak interval to occurs measles was from the first ten days of the month of February to the last ten days of the month of June. After immune planning, the peak point to occurs measles was the last ten days of the month of March, and the interval to occurs measles was from the last ten days of the month of January to the second ten days of the month of May. After immune planning, the time for the peak to occurs measles has been moved up, therefore the measure to control measles must be moved up.
出处
《现代预防医学》
CAS
1998年第3期301-303,共3页
Modern Preventive Medicine
关键词
圆形分布
麻疹
发病季节特征
流行病学
Circle distribution
Proportion
Cosin model
Measles
Seasonal feature
