摘要
近期诱增客流量包括由交通条件改变导致出行分布变化和出行频率增加引发的新客流量。分析城市轨道交通近期诱增客流的产生原因及其表现特征,针对势能模型和弹性系数法的使用范围和其局限性,进行综合分析,提出两者结合的改进模型,并在此基础上建立诱增客流预测模型,以提高预测精度。
The short-term induced passenger flow includes the new passenger flow resulted from the trip distribution change and the trip frequency growth caused by traffic condition change. This paper analyzes the reasons and characteristics of short-term induced passenger flow of urban mass transit, makes comprehensive studies on the utilization range and the limitation of the potential model and the elasticity coefficient method, and puts forward the improved model which combines the two methods. Then, the forecast model of induced passenger flow is established based on above two methods, which could enhance the forecast accuracy.
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2009年第11期55-57,共3页
Railway Transport and Economy
关键词
近期诱增客流
势能模型
弹性系数法
short-term induced passenger flow
potential model
elasticity coefficient method
