摘要
当前全球金融危机对中国造成的影响已经显现,最新数据显示中国的出口和进口都遭遇了20世纪90年代以来的最大跌幅;而与此同时,受金融危机的影响,人民币汇率正经历着巨大的不确定性和波动性。多年来美国一直是中国最大的出口对象国,日本一直是中国最大的进口来源国。本文通过历史数据采用汇率波动对国际贸易影响实证研究的标准模型,建立了中美和中日贸易模型,从中发现人民币汇率水平和波动对国际贸易产生影响的规律以应对危机冲击。研究结果表明,面临全球金融危机的不断蔓延和日益复杂多变的国际环境,暂缓人民币升值和人民币汇率形成机制改革的步伐也难以抵消这种负面冲击。中国经济的发展须在"扩内需,调结构"上做文章。
The impact of the current global financial crisis on China has been shown as the latest data reveal that both exports and imports have suffered the largest decline since the 90＇s, while RMB exchange rate is facing great uncertainty and volatility as well. For years, American has been China＇s No 1 exporting partner and Japan has been China＇s No 1 importing partner. Based on the standard empirical model of exchange rate volatility effect on international trade, this paper builds the models of the bilateral trade of China-US and China-Japan to find laws to respond to the crisis. Empirical study shows that facing the spread of the global financial crisis and volatile international environment, the slowdown of the RMB appreciation and the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism might not offset this negative impact. We must exercise great effort on “expanding domestic demand, readjusting the structure,” to ensure China＇s economic development.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第10期83-93,共11页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目(项目编号:L08DJY086)的资助
关键词
全球金融危机
汇率波动
贸易
协整模型
global financial crisis, exchange rate volatility, trade, cointegration model
