摘要
根据山东省曲阜市植保站１９８２～１９９４年对棉花苗期棉蚜的系统观测资料和相应年份的气象资料，应用模糊优选技术，建立了棉花苗期棉蚜发生程度的模糊优选预报模型。对历史资料进行回代验证，其历史拟合率达１００％。将１９９５年的气象观测数据作为独立样本进行试报，预测结果与实际一致。
Based on the historic data of the occurrence degree of Aphis gossypii Glover in cotton seedling stage observed in Qufu, Shandong Province and the meteorological data during the years of 1982￣1994, a model of fuzzy optimized prediction for forecasting the occurrence degree of Aphis gossypii glover at cotton seedling stage was established. The coincidence rate of forecast with historic data reached 100% in test. The forecasted results carried out in 1995 completely coincided with the actual occurrence.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
1998年第5期29-32,共4页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
关键词
棉蚜
模糊优选技术
预测
预报
Aphis gossypii glover
Fuzzy optimized technique
Prediction
