摘要
准确预测油气田产量和可采储量对油气田的科学开发决策至关重要。而油气田的开发是一个非常复杂的非线性演变过程,基于自然界生物生长的增长规律建立起预测油气田产量和可采储量的Logistic-Verhulst模型,对比分析了模型参数的辨识方法,通过应用实例,采用不同的参数辨识方法模拟预测了油气田的产量和可采储量。研究表明,logistic模型参数灰色GM辨识方法精度较高,结果合理,这为Logistic模型的准确模拟预测油气田的产量和可采储量提供了有效、规范的参数辨识方法,也为油气田提供了制定中、长期开发规划的依据。
That accurately forecasting oil-gas field output and recoverable reserves is very important to the oil-gas field science development decision-making.But the oil-gas field development is an extremely complex non-linearity successional develop process,based on the growth rule in the nature biology,establishes the Logistic-Verhulst forecast model for oil-gas fields' output and recoverable reserves,contrasts and analyses the model parameters' recognize methods,through the application example,forecasts the oil-gas fields' output and recoverable reserves by different parameter recognize methods.The research indicated that,logistic model that based on gray GM recognize method has higher precision,and the result is reasonable,which provides effective and normative parameter recognize method for accurate simulation and forecasting the oil-gas fields' output and recoverable reserves by Logistic model,also provides the long-term development plan on the of basis field development.
出处
《新疆石油天然气》
CAS
2009年第1期57-59,共3页
Xinjiang Oil & Gas
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(No.50634020)
黑龙江省科技攻关项目(No.GZ05A301)资助
