摘要
科技创新是促进经济增长的源泉和转变经济增长方式的关键,那么科技创新投入对经济增长是否存在积极影响?本文运用时间序列方法,在4变量系统内检验了我国科技创新投入与经济增长的内在关系,实证结果显示:①经济增长和固定资本投资、劳动投入、科技创新投入之间存在着长期均衡的协整关系;②科技创新投入对经济增长具有Granger影响,科技创新投入增加会导致经济增长;③在1-15年滞后期内,科技创新投入对经济增长的短期冲击为正向效应。在实证基础上,进一步分析了科技创新投入对经济增长的作用机理和路径依赖,并由此得出相关结论与政策建议。
The science and technology innovation is the headspring and the key which can promot economic growth and change economy increasing manner. Is there the Science and technology innovation expense positive influence on the economic growth？ This paper applied the analytic method of time sequence to investigate the intrinsic relation between the Science and technology innovation expense and the economic growth in China within a 4 variables system. The experiential result showed： 1） there is a long-term co-integration among the economic growth,the fixed capital investment,the labor devotion and the science and technology innovation expense in China. 2） there is a unidirectional causality from the Science and technology innovation expense to the economic growth, and the increment of science and technology innovation expense can make economy grow. 3） the short-term impulsion from the science and technology innovation expense to the economic growth is positive effect in the lagged period of 15 years. On the base of the experiential research, this paper analyzed the mechanism and path dependences of the science and technology innovation expense impaction on the economic growth, and drew the conclusions and policy suggestions according to this.
出处
《数理统计与管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第4期579-587,共9页
Journal of Applied Statistics and Management
基金
重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学研究项目(09SKL03)
关键词
科技创新投入
经济增长
内在机制
协整
广义脉冲响应函数
science and technology innovation expense, economy growth, intrinsic mechanism, cointegration, generalized impulse responses function
