摘要
本文认为,货币差额法应是衡量宏观经济流动性过剩的首选指标,货币供应量超过了实体经济增长所需要的货币量就是流动性过剩,并构建了相关统计指标。结合可比的海外经验,当前我国股指虽已高位回落,但流动性的收缩会对股市产生滞后一年或两年的影响。为了防止流动性过剩变化对今后股市产生剧烈变动,甚至引发暴跌,管理层应有预见性地把握流动性紧缩的力度和节奏;投资者也应密切关注有关管理部门,尤其是央行对流动性过剩状况的判断和采取的紧缩措施的力度和节奏。
The currency supply level difference method should be the first indi- cator used to judge the excess liquidity of macro-economy. Excess liquidity means that currency supply amounts exceed the currency amounts needed by the entity economic growth. The stock price index in China at present has been in high position, and liquidity contraction has the lagged effect on the stock price index for 1 year or for 2 years. Therefore, China will continue to have bullish stock markets in 2008. In order to prevent the stock price index from sharp fluctuations, even a steep fall, caused by liquidity change, management should predictably grasp the intensity and rhythm of liquidity contraction. Investors should also pay close attention to judgment about the liquidity surplus situation of the management departments, es- pecially the central bank, and their measures on the contraction intensity and rhythm.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第7期134-145,共12页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
关键词
流动性过剩
货币供应量
本币升值
Excess Liquidity
Money Supply
Domestic Currency Revaluation
