流动性过剩的测量、根源和风险涵义被引量：43

导出

摘要全球国际收支失衡下的流动性过剩是当前世界经济最重要的特征事实。如何衡量流动性过剩的程度,流动性过剩的源头以及流动性过剩将给世界经济和全球金融体系造成什么影响,成为目前理论界的热门话题。本文利用狭义货币、广义货币、国内信贷与GDP的比率衡量了流动性过剩程度,并发现在美日等发达国家以及祖国大陆与台湾和香港地区、韩国等东亚新兴市场经济体,均存在一定程度的流动性过剩。发达国家流动性过剩的原因是实施了以低利率为特征的宽松货币政策,而新兴市场经济体流动性过剩的原因是外汇储备增加导致基础货币发行增加。流动性的国际传导刻画了当前中心-外围国际货币体系的特征。流动性过剩已经造成全球范围内的资产价格泡沫,并可能引发未来的全面通货膨胀。一旦流动性过剩发生逆转,将会给世界经济和全球金融体系造成严重负面冲击。

作者张明

机构地区中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所

出处《世界经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2007年第11期44-55,共12页 The Journal of World Economy

关键词流动性过剩资产价格泡沫测量国际收支失衡风险

分类号 F822.0 [经济管理—财政学]

引文网络
相关文献

参考文献19

1巴曙松(2007).《流动性拐点正出现开始趋于偏紧》,http://www.business.sohu.com/20070628/n250827175.shtml.
2余永定.理解流动性过剩[J].国际经济评论,2007(4):5-7. 被引量：93
3Adalid, Ramon and Detken, Carsten. " Excessive Liquidity and Asset Price Boom/Bust Cycles." http ://www. ecb. int/ pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp732, pdf, 2005.
4Adrian, Tobias and Shin, Hyun Song. "Money, Liquidity and Financial Cycles. " Paper Presented in the Academic Panel at the 4th ECB Central Banking Conference, Frankfurt, November 2006, 9 - 10.
5Becker, Sebastian. "Global Liquidity Glut and Asset Price Inflation. " Deutsche Bank Research, May 2007, 29.
6Dooley, M. ; Folkerts - Landau, D. and Garber, P. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System. "NBER Working Paper, September 2003, No. 9971.
7Goldstein, Morris and Lardy, Nicholas R. “China's Role in the Revived Bretton Woods System: A Case of Mistaken Identity.”Institute of International Economics, Working Paper Series, March 2005, No. WP 05 - 2.
8Gouteron, Sylvain and Szpiro, Daniel. "Excess Monetary Liquidity and Asset Prices. " http ://www. banque-france. fr/gb/ publications/ner/1 - 131. htm, 3 June 2005.
9Herring, R. and Wachter, S. "Bubbles in Real Estate Markets. " Asset Price Bubbles:The Implications for Monetary, Regulatory, and International Policies, Chapter 14: 217, MIT Press, 2003.
10Hicks, J. R. Critical Essays in Monetary Theory, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1967.

二级参考文献3

1Magnus Saxegaard:Excess Liquidity and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. IMF, Working Paper, WP/06115.p12.
2Rasmus Rufer and Vivio Stracca: What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter? EBC, Working Paper Series No 696. Nov. 2006, p7.
3Sebastian Becker: Global Liquidity “glut” and Asset Price Inflation, Deutsche Bank Research, May 27,2007, p4.