摘要
欧盟是中国的主要贸易伙伴,欧盟的不断扩大与深化不仅会影响成员国的内部贸易,也将影响中欧贸易。本文从欧洲经济一体化对成员国的生产和贸易结构造成的影响入手,在引力模型框架下使用面板协整与误差修正模型研究中欧贸易的影响因素与作用机制。结果显示:从长期来看,贸易效应、生产效应、经济规模及汇率因素对均衡的中欧贸易流量有不同程度的影响;短期在生产效应和贸易效应共同作用下,中欧贸易顺差有扩大趋势。
Sino-EU trade volume grows rapidly with European integration. The sophisticated internal market influences both Sino-EU trade and the member states＇production and trade. Proceeding from studying the adjusted production and trade structure of EU member states, applying gravity model enriched with co-integration test and error correction model of panel data, this paper researches degree and mechanism of Sino-EU trade with European integration. The conclusions show that trade effects, production effects and economy scale affect Sino-EU equilibrium trade volume to varying degrees in the long run, while in the short run China＇trade surplus tends to expand due to the coordination of production and trade effects.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第7期99-108,119,共11页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目招标课题"国际区域一体化比较研究"资助(编号:05JJD790087)
国家社会科学基金"发展中国家参与国际经济一体化福利效应的比较研究"(编号:06BGJ016)资助
关键词
中欧贸易
生产效应
贸易效应
面板数据
Sino-EU Trade
Trade Effects
Production Effects
Panel Data
