摘要
目前随着美元币值的变化,人民币对美元小幅贬值或升值,但人民币对非美元货币的贬值或升值则往往相反,这种变化使得我们对人民币币值的变化难以把握。本文研究人民币对美元和非美元汇率变动,并在此基础上研究人民币有效汇率指数变化;根据人民币有效汇率指数,构建人民币核心汇率指数并分析其变动及意义。本文认为,人民币汇率目标主要侧重于人民币对美元汇率,而人民币对非美元货币汇率波动有更大的弹性,因此,如果央行以人民币有效汇率为目标,则能够确定每天人民币对美元汇率的中间价,真正建立人民币参考一篮子货币的汇率目标。
RMB appreciates or devalues against US dollar a little, but RMB often moves in an opposite direction against non-US dollar. We hardly judge the RMB currency value based on this. The paper mainly studies the exchange rates of RMB against US dollar and non-US dollar, and then focuses on the RMB effective exchange rate. The author thinks RMB exchange rate target presently focuses on the exchange rate of RMB against US dollar, so RMB exchange rate moves largely against non-US dollar. Hence the paper indicates if the central bank targets RMB effective exchange rate, the middle price of RMB exchange rate against US dollar can be determined, and further we can obtain RMB exchange rate against US dollar with reference to a basket of currencies.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第7期3-18,共16页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金(70673011)
上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2008BJB024)
复旦大学中国经济国际竞争力创新基地国际金融方向子课题的资助
关键词
人民币
美元
非美元
汇率
有效汇率
RMB
US Dollar
non-US Dollar
Exchange Rate
Effective Exchange Rate Index
