摘要
开展航空公司的飞行安全系统评价是提高飞行安全运行水平的重要措施。在对国内外相关研究成果进行分析和比较的基础上,结合飞行安全评价中的不确定性特点,利用飞行安全评价指标体系,建立了基于贝叶斯网络的飞行安全系统评价模型。该模型能够有效地处理专家意见一致或不一致的情形,并对系统进行预测及诊断分析。通过对某航空公司飞行安全运行状况的实例评价,结果表明此方法是合理有效的。
Carry out airlines flight safety system assessment is one of the important measures to improve airline＇s overall safety level. Aimed at solving the uncertainty in the assessment of airlines flight safety, this paper proposed a flight safety system assessment model based on Bayesian networks （BN） combined the use of a new airlines safety index after the comparative analysis on the related studies home and abroad. The assessment model is able to deal with complicated logic relationship as well as different opinions of experts and the output of the safety assessment model can be used to predict and diagnose different safety conditions. An empirical study of an airline is conducted to illustrate how the safety level is obtained, which validates the application by the safety system assessment method is effective and feasible.
出处
《中国民航大学学报》
CAS
2009年第3期30-36,共7页
Journal of Civil Aviation University of China
基金
中国民用航空局教育基金项目(07-6-03)
关键词
飞行安全评价
贝叶斯网络(BN)
预测及诊断分析
概率推理
flight safety assessment
Bayesian networks （BN）
predictive and diagnostic analysis
probability inference
