摘要
利用漳州市1996--2004年的土地利用变更调查数据，将全市生态系统划分为农田、林地、园地、草地、水体、湿地、人工建筑七大生态系统进行生态服务价值估算，并进行通径分析，结果表明全市生态服务价值在293．42-294．29亿元之间微弱地波动上升，导致其上升的主要因素是园地生态系统面积的扩大．利用马尔科夫模型预测出的2020年全市生态服务价值比2004年略有增加，而增加的主要因素仍为园地生态系统面积的扩大．
With land use changing investigation data from1996--2004 in Zhangzhou, the land could be divided into 7 ecosystems such as farmland, forestland, garden plot, grassland, waters, wetland and artificial building, so as to evaluate the ecological service value. By latus rectum analysis, the results showed that the value had an increasing trend with tiny fluctuations between 29. 342 and 29. 429 billon, the main factor which caused the trend was the expansion of garden plot ecosystem. With the adoption of Markov Model to predict ecological service value in 2020, we found that it would be a little greater than that in 2004 with the garden plot ecosystem expansion as its main factor.
出处
《福建师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第3期114-118,共5页
Journal of Fujian Normal University：Natural Science Edition
基金
福建省科技厅基金资助项目(2006F5029)
关键词
生态服务价值
通径分析
土地利用变化
园地生态系统
漳州市
ecological service value
latus rectum analysis
land use change
garden plotecosystem
Zhangzhou city
