摘要
简要分析了现行船舶电站可靠性分析方法的不足,提出将灰色理论与马尔可夫预测相结合,运用在船用电站可靠性估计,建立其灰色马尔可夫预测模型,并根据模型对后几年船舶电站"故障率"的变化趋势进行了预测.分析表明:基于灰色马尔可夫的电站可靠性预测模型的精度高于灰色预测模型,同时弥补了单一马尔可夫链预测依赖于系统分布参数的局限,为船舶电站可靠性研究提供了一种新思路.
The paper briefly analyzes the existing deficiencies of analysis of ship power station reliability. The Gray Theoretic and Markov Prediction is combined, which is applied in estimating reliability of ship power station. Gray-Markov model is established, which accordingly helps to predict the changes of ＂failure rate＂ in the following years. The analysis shows that the precision of power station reliability based on Gray-Markov model is higher than Gray prediction model. Meanwhile, it can make up for the limitations of only using Markov chain, which depends on the parameters of the distribution. It provides a new kind of thought on researching ship power station reliability.
出处
《船舶工程》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第2期43-45,49,共4页
Ship Engineering
基金
船舶行业国防预研基金资助(基金号:02J4.27)
