摘要
在总结国内外有关滑(边)坡预测预报成果的基础上,对其适用性及使用条件进行深入研究。针对锦屏一级水电站左岸高边坡的边坡类型、边坡特征、变形特点和变形机制,在监测成果的基础上,对其进行综合预报,空间上判断左岸拱肩边坡由断层F5,f42–9、深部裂缝SL44–1及煌斑岩脉X互相组合,形成可能边坡失稳块体的边界条件、楔型体滑移失稳模式;时间上采用统计模型及非线性模型多种方法联合预报,根据边坡变形时序曲线的形态及变形速率指出:边坡目前处在缓慢蠕动至匀速变形阶段,变形速率小于0.05 mm/d。设计出适合锦屏一级水电站边坡的综合预测预报模型,初步给定边坡4项预警临界值,为边坡开挖工作的顺利开展提供科学的依据。
Based on the summarization of the achievements of landslide prediction at home and abroad, the in-depth study is done on their applicability and service conditions. Aiming at slope types, features, deformation traits and destroy mechanism of high steep valley slope at Jinping I Hydropower Station, and applying monitoring results, a comprehensive prediction design is suggested. In the space, according to the occurrences of unfavorable geological phenomena such as faults F5, f42-9, deep fracture SL44-1 and lamprophyre vein X, all of them can be treated as the boundary conditions for slides, potential instable blocks of slope on the left abutment are estimated which take on a wedge-shaped sliding model. In the sametime, through using three kinds of joint prediction methods such as statistic models and nonlinear models, judging from the shape of curves of deformation-time and their deformation velocities, it is found that the slope is at the state of slowly creeping to uniform deforming with a deforming velocity of 0.05 mm/d. So the comprehensive prediction models fitting for Jinping I Hydropower Station are designed and four early warning criteria are proposed so as to provide scientific evidence for the successful progress of the slope excavation.
出处
《岩石力学与工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第10期2058-2063,共6页
Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(50539110)
关键词
边坡工程
边坡监测
预报
预警指标
slope engineering
slope monitoring
prediction
early warning index
