摘要
滑坡作为一种自然地质灾害,常常会造成巨大的生命财产损失。为了避免或减轻灾害的发生,事先对滑坡做出预报便具有重要的意义和价值。滑坡预报模型和预报判据是滑坡时间预报的核心,也是滑坡成功预报的重要因素。目前,国内外许多学者提出了多种滑坡预报理论模型和方法,但这些理论模型和方法的适用性普遍较差。要想做到准确预报,必须建立一些具有一定适用性的滑坡预报判据。论文通过查阅大量资料,分析总结了滑坡预报中的10多种预报判据,详述了3类常用的预报判据(安全系数和可靠概率判据、变形速率判据和宏观信息预报判据),重点研究了滑坡预报判据的适用性和不充分性。为了提高滑坡的预报水平,提出了滑坡预报必须建立在深入研究滑坡类型、滑坡特征、变形特点和形成机制的基础上,以监测资料为依据,遵循科学性、综合性、易操作性的原则,将理论模型预报、根据预报判据预报以及斜坡的宏观变形破坏迹象和前兆信息等几者有机地结合起来的综合信息预报方法。
As a kind of natural geology hazard,landslides will often cause loss of lifes and wealth.In order to avoid or reduce hazards,it is important and valuable to predict landslide in advance.Prediction models and criterions are key factors in temporary prediction of landslides,and are also important factors for predicting landslides successfully.At present ,many scholars in home and abroad have presented many kinds of theoretical models and methods about predicting landslides,but they have some limits generally in application.In order to obtain an accurate prediction,We should establish some applicable criterions of landslide prediction.In this paper,by consulting large quantity of data,analysing and generalizing more than ten kinds of landslide prediction criterions,describing three sorts of common prediction criterions are presented in details ie.assurance factor and reliability probility criterions,deformation rate criterion and macro information prediction criterion,the applicability and insufficiency of landslide prediction criterions are also anylized emphatically.In order to improve the level of landslide prediction,on the basis of thoroughly researching landslide types,characters,deformation features and formation mechanism,depending on monitoring data,following the scientific,synthetic and workable principle,a comprehensive information prediction method which combines theoretical model prediction and prediction criterion and macrography deformationfailure evidence or premonition of landslide is presented here.
出处
《中国地质灾害与防治学报》
CSCD
2003年第4期5-11,共7页
The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control
基金
国家自然科学基金(40172096)
国土资源部2000专项计划资助项目
关键词
滑坡
预报判据
适用性
不充分性
综合信息预报
landslide
landslide prediction
prediction criterion
applicability
insufficiency
comprehensive information prediction
